Research
We work on a wide variety of problems related to climate change, with a general focus on the Earth’s atmosphere. The core of our work is on large-scale climate dynamics and climate sensitivity, with an emphasis on using theory and idealized models to develop intuition, which is then validated against observations and comprehensive climate models. This can include using Energy Balance Models of the climate system, quasi-geostrophic models of the mid-latitude atmosphere, and various idealizations to the atmosphere’s radiative transfer equations. Recent topics of interest include: analytic models of radiative feedbacks, cloud adjustments, moist atmospheric dynamics, superrotation and monsoons.
Recently we have begun working on more decision-relevant topics, such as future projections of precipitation over the Northeast US and Northern Mexico; heat stress; and the role of moisture in heat-related health outcomes. We are also cautiously exploring the topic of solar geoengineering: we believe that climate scientists should be at the forefront of the debate surrounding solar geoengineering, ensuring that we have a deep understanding of the consequences of any proposed intervention and that there are no unexpected surprises.
We always welcome new ideas and exciting projects – please get in touch if you are interested in collaborating.
Untitled (Reaper Drone), 2014, Pigment Print — Copyright: Trevor Paglen
Courtesy of: the Artist, Altman Siegel, San Francisco and Pace Gallery
Publications
2024
Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation Over Northern Mexico
Nazarian, R. H., Brizuela, N. G., Matijevic, B. J., Vizzard, J. V., Agostino, C. P., and Lutsko, N. J. (2024)
Journal of Climate, In press.
ClimSim: an Open Large-Scale Dataset for Training High-Resolution Physics Emulators in Hybrid Multi-Scale Climate Simulators
Yu, S. et al. (2023)
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 36
Climate-Invariant Machine Learning
Beucler, T. et al (2024)
Science Advances, 10 (6), eadj7250
Non-ENSO Precursors for Northwestern Pacific Summer Monsoon Variability with Implications for Predictability
Zhang, P., Xie, S.-P., Kosako, Y., and Lutsko, N. J. (2024)
Journal of Climate, 37 (1), 199-212.
2023
Precipitation Efficiency and Climate Sensitivity
Lutsko. N. J., Sherwood, S. C., and Zhao, M. (2023)
In: Clouds and Their Climatic Impacts: Radiation, Circulation, and Precipitation
High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections
Beck, H.E., McVicar, T.R., Vergopolan, N. et al. (2023)
Scientific Data 10, 724.
Humidity’s Role in Heat-Related Health Outcomes: A Heated Debate
Baldwin, J. W., Benmarhnia, T., Ebi, K. L., Jay, O., Lutsko, N. J., and Vanos, J. K. (2023)
Environmental Health Perspectives, 131:5 CID: 055001.
Hydrological Consequences of Solar Geoengineering
Ricke, K., Wan, J. S., Saenger, M., and Lutsko, N. J. (2023)
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 51 (1): 447-470.
An Analytical Model for the Clear-Sky Longwave Feedback
Koll, D. D., Jeevanjee, N., and Lutsko, N. J. (2023)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 80 (8): 1923-1951.
2022
Seasonal Superrotation in Earth’s Troposphere
Zhang, P. and Lutsko, N. J. (2022).
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 79 (12): 3297-3314.
Continental Geometry’s Role in Shaping Wintertime Temperature Variance
Neumann, N. K. and Lutsko, N. J. (2022)
Journal of Climate, 35 (24): 8049–8064.
Correlation Between Cloud Adjustments and Cloud Feedbacks Responsible for Larger Range of Climate Sensitivities in CMIP6
Lutsko, N. J., Luongo, M. T., Wall, C. J., and Myers, T. A. (2022).
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(23):e2022JD037486.
Assessing Effective Radiative Forcing from Aerosol–Cloud Interactions Over the Global Ocean
Wall, C. J., Norris, J. R., Possner, A., McCoy, D. T., McCoy, I. L., and Lutsko, N. J. (2022)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119 (46), e2210481119.
Projected Changes in Future Extreme Precipitation over the Northeast United States in the NA-CORDEX Ensemble
Nazarian R. H., Vizzard J. V., Agostino C. P., Lutsko N. J. (2022)
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 61 (11):1649–1668.
Revisiting Cloud Radiative Heating and the Southern Annular Mode
Wall, C. J., Lutsko, N. J., and Vishny, D. N. (2022)
Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100463.
2021
The Recent Emergence of Arctic Amplification
England, M. R., Eisenman, I., Lutsko, N. J., and Wagner, T. J. W. (2021)
Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2021GL094086.
Simpson's Law and the Spectral Cancellation of Climate Feedbacks
Jeevanjee, N., Koll, D. D. B., and Lutsko, N. J. (2021)
Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL093699.
Decomposing the Drivers of Polar Amplification with a Single-Column Model
Henry, M., Merlis T. M., Lutsko, N. J., and Rose, B. E. J. (2021)
Journal of Climate, 34(6): 2355 – 2365.
Emergent Constraints on Regional Cloud Feedbacks
Lutsko, N. J., Popp, M., Nazarian, R. H., and Albright, A. L. (2021)
Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL092934.
Time-Varying Empirical Probability Densities of Southern Ocean Surface Winds: Linking the Leading Mode to SAM and Quantifying Wind Product Differences
Hell, M. C., Cornuelle, B. D., Gille, S. T., and Lutsko, N. J. (2021)
Journal of Climate, 34(13): 5497 – 5522.
The Relative Contributions of Temperature and Moisture to Heat Stress Changes under Warming
Lutsko, N. J., (2021)
Journal of Climate, 34(3): 901 – 917.
2020
Designing a Radiative Antidote to CO2
Seeley, J. T., Lutsko, N. J., and Keith, D. W. (2020)
Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL090876.
Estimating Impacts and Trade‐offs in Solar Geoengineering Scenarios With a Moist Energy Balance Model
Lutsko, N. J., Seeley, J. T. and Keith, D. W. (2020)
Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087290.
Weaker Links Between Zonal Convective Clustering and ITCZ Width in Climate Models Than in Observations
Popp, M., Lutsko, N. J. and Bony, S. (2020) Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL090479.
The Relationship Between Convective Clustering and Mean Tropical Climate in Aquaplanet Simulations Popp, M., Lutsko, N. J. and Bony, S. (2020)
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12:e2020MS002070.
Testing the Limits and Breakdown of the Nonacceleration Theorem for Orographic Stationary Waves Lutsko, N. J., (2020)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 77(5): 1513 – 1529.
2019
Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Time‐Scales
Lutsko, N. J. and Popp, M. (2019)
Geophysical Research Letters, 46: 11367 – 11377.
The Impact of Large-Scale Orography on Northern Hemisphere Winter Synoptic Temperature Variability
Lutsko, N. J., Baldwin, J. W., and Cronin, T. W. (2019) Journal of Climate, 32(18): 5799 – 5814.
Modulation of Monsoon Circulations by Cross-Equatorial Ocean Heat Transport
Lutsko, N. J., Marshall, J., and Green, B. (2019) Journal of Climate, 32(13): 3471 – 3485.
2018
The Relationship Between Cloud Radiative Effect and Surface Temperature Variability at ENSO Frequencies in CMIP5 Models
Lutsko, N. J. (2018)
Geophysical Research Letters, 45: 10599 – 10608.
What Can the Internal Variability of CMIP5 Models Tell Us About Their Climate Sensitivity?
Lutsko, N. J. and Takahashi, K. (2018)
Journal of Climate, 31(13): 5051 – 5069.
Increase in Precipitation Efficiency with Surface Warming in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium
Lutsko, N. J. and Cronin, T. W. (2018) Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10: 2992 – 3010.
The Influence of Meridional Gradients in Insolation and LongWave Optical Depth on the Climate of a Gray Radiation GCM
Lutsko, N. J. and Popp, M. (2018) Journal of Climate, 31(10): 7803 – 7822.
The Response of a Dry Atmosphere to ENSO-like Heating: Superrotation and the Breakdown of Linear Theory
Lutsko, N. J. (2018) Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75(1): 3 – 20.
2017
Lower Tropospheric Eddy Momentum Fluxes in Idealized Models and Reanalysis Data
Lutsko, N. J., Held, I. M., Zurita-Gotor, P. and O'Rourke, A. K. (2017) Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74(11): 3787 – 3797.
Quantifying the Zonal-Mean Structure of Tropical Precipitation
Popp, M. and Lutsko, N. J. (2017) Geophysical Research Letters, 44(18): 9470 – 9478 2017GL075235.
2016
The Response of an Idealized Atmosphere to Orographic Forcing: Zonal vs Meridional Propagation
Lutsko, N. J. and Held, I. M. (2016) Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(9): 3701 – 3718.
2015
Applying the Fluctuation–Dissipation Theorem to a Two-Layer Model of Quasi-Geostrophic Turbulence
Lutsko, N. J., Held, I. M., and Zurita-Gotor, P. (2015) Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72(8): 3161 – 3177.